Hello Brad, a most detailed bit of work if I may say so. Well done!
One or three points if I may.
(A) While the evidence of passengers must not be completely discounted, it should be clearly understood that clock changes on a ship only directly effected the working hours of a single group - those who were on duty during the period the change was made. Consequently, since these were completed between the hours of 10 pm and 6 am the following morning, only those on duty at that time would either work more minutes going West or work fewer minutes going East. On Titanic, those effected were, besides a few Catering staff and the wireless operators, the Deck and Engine crew on duty during the 8 to Midnight and Midnight to 4 am Watches.
Day workers, like passengers, only gained or lost sleep. Normally, the former would adjust personal time pieces in the late evening before going to sleep. The latter were a mixture.
Consequently, if you can find any member of the above mentioned Watches who were either waiting to go on or off duty at the time of impact with the iceberg or did go on or off duty shortly after it, then you have proof of a partial clock change.
(B) The evidence of young John Collins who was on his first trip to sea has been completely dismissed, as has the evidence of veteran stewardess Annie Robinson. Both of these crew members were day workers who would gain an extra 47 minutes sleep due the the planned clock change. Both of them had April 15 time on their personal time pieces.
Young John, stated that the time of impact on his bedside clock was 11-15 am. He was very precise about it - even compensating for the inaccuracy of his clock.
Annie was in a lifeboat watching Titanic sink, when the vessel disappeared, she noted the time of 1-40 am. on her watch.
These times indicate that Titanic was afloat for 2 hours and 25 minutes, not the popularly accepted interval of 2 hours 40 minutes... a difference of 15 minutes. However, if Annie had April 15 time, then Titanic sank at 2-27 am April 14 time, not 2-20 am April 14 time as popularly accepted a difference of 21 minutes.
Not only that, young John's evidence indicates that impact with the ice berg took place at 12-02 am April 14 time. However, if the clock had been partially set back by 23 minutes a couple of minutes before impact. then the time of impact seen on a partially adjusted clock would have been
11-39 pm
The foregoing evidence has been completely buried by researchers or loftily dismissed by them as inconsequential.
(C). At the time of impact the Lookout reliefs, Hogg and Evans believed it was close to One Bell... the 15 minute warning before change of Watches. They subsequently climbed to the Crow; Nest and relieved Lookouts Fleet and Lee and that was 20 minutes after impact.
(D) Just before the impact, AB Osman was waiting for one bell - the fifteen minute warning before change of Watches. Watches were due to change at Midnight, 12 hours 23 minutes after Noon April 14. This agrees within a minute of the timing of young John Collins.
(D) Let's consider 5th Officer Lowe, who to me, is one of the most reliable witnesses.
Lowe was tasked with 6th Officer Moody to compile Propeller Slip Tables. For this he needed regular updates on engine revolutions and a ship's positions at each update time. Fixed positions for the latter were preferable but in the absence of them, he would use Dead Reckoning positions based on Patent Log readings. That was where he got his 20.95 knots speed from noon number - the 6pm patent log reading which as you and others suggest was a misinterpreted 162 miles. I completely reject that. here is why.
Lowe got his speed from the Patent Log when he came on duty at 6 pm.
If his calculated average speed based on that was 20.95 miles, then the patent log would have read 125.7 miles at 6 pm and 10 minutes earlier, at 5-50 pm when the ship turned, would have read 122.2 nautical miles, not 126 nautical miles. You should know that designated Navigators worked very precisely in knots and tenths thereof.
So where did the 162 miles come from? I suggest to you it was a mix-up of memory on the part of 5th Officer Lowe.
When Lightoller returned to the bridge after dinners at 7-30 pm that evening he took evening sights... 6 of them. These would occupy at least 5 minutes of time and would have barely been finished by 7-40 pm. During that 10 minutes, Lowe would have calculated a Dead Reckoning position to be used in the calculation of Lightoller's sights. To do this, he would call aft and get the aft QM to read the Patent Log at that time. This was standard practice then and for the next 50 years.
If Fifth Officer Low was correct with his average speed up to 6pm, then if the ship speed had started to increase after the turn, which we know it did, and, if at the time of reading the log it read 162 , then from 5-50 pm until the reading for DR sights was taken, she had covered a distance 36.3 miles. If the reading was taken at say 7-40 pm when Lightoller had finished his evening sights, then the average speed from the turn had increased to almost 21.5 knots.
A speed less than 22 knots up to evening sights is verified by 2nd Officer Boxhall who, when working his distress position used a speed of 22 knots from evening sights because he believed that the flat calm weather would allow the ship to make her maximum possible speed due to minimised propeller slip.
We know that the speed from 8 pm was 22.5 knots and the patent log read 260 miles at 11-40 pm, time of impact. if there had not been a clock change, then the run time from Noon to impact was 11hours 40 minutes and Titanic would have covered 3.6 x 22.5 = 81 miles in the last 3 hours 40 minutes of that time, leaving 179 miles to have been covered in the remaining 8 hours Noon to 8 pm. This produces an average speed of 22.375 knots from Noon to 8 pm If that were so, why on God's Green Earth would 2nd Officer Boxhall use an average speed of only 22 knots to calculate his distress position if, from his calculation of Lightoller's sights, he knew, for absolute certain, the exact distance from Noon sights to 7-30 pm sights and consequently, the exact average speed between these 2 times?
www.encyclopedia-titanica.org
