What if the crew reshuffle had never happened?

[Muhammad Ahmad]

This is a Massive what if question, but what if the crew reshuffle had never happened? We would have to consider many things such as, Wilde not being on the ship at all, Murdoch being the chief officer, Lightoller being the 1st officer, and one that intrigues me, the original 2nd officer David Blair still being on the ship.

Would it have ended with there being a Collison at all? If so, would more lives be saved? Would the officers themselves survive the sinking? What would our opinions be about them if they maintained their original rank?

I am very interested to seeing peoples responses, as this question is vastly up to individual belief, and opinions.

 

[Sarah S]

If the reshuffle never happened then Lightoller would have been 1st Officer and therefore on duty during the collision.
If I remember correctly, some historians have doubted that Lightoller would have avoided a collision. So I cautiously assume there could have been an even worse outcome if Lightoller had been 1st Officer and on watch.
Of course there will never be proof for this and I’m afraid to do these men a disservice. But I think there could have been an even bigger loss of life if anyone but Murdoch had been on watch.

 

[Yuriko Cheng]

If I remember correctly, some historians have doubted that Lightoller would have avoided a collision. So I cautiously assume there could have been an even worse outcome if Lightoller had been 1st Officer and on watch.

Could you elaborate on this, please?

 

[Bob Read]

But I think there could have been an even bigger loss of life if anyone but Murdoch had been on watch.

That is the epitome of idle speculation.

 

[Dan E. Parkes]

If I remember correctly, some historians have doubted that Lightoller would have avoided a collision.

I would be curious to know who these historians are. To me, it sounds more like speculation on an internet forum.

But I think there could have been an even bigger loss of life if anyone but Murdoch had been on watch.

I understand where you are coming from Sarah - Murdoch was undoubtedly a very capable officer, the sea ran in his blood. He saved a previous ship from a collision (Arabic, 1903) by overriding a command from a superior - he was that confident in his instinct. And recent analytical work by experts in their fields such as Sam Halpern I think has confirmed that he almost pulled off a small miracle with his handling of Titanic.

That is the epitome of idle speculation.

Harsh - but true. The reality is that in the absence of an officer reshuffle, we have absolutely no idea what would have happened, due to the power of the "butterfly effect" - small incremental changes that would all add up to completely change the outcome on a much larger scale - for better or for worse. This is why I find these "what if" scenarios a frustrating and fruitless exercise, to be honest.

 

[Arun Vajpey]

That is the epitome of idle speculation.

Well, there is a heading for "what-if" scenarios that never happened in these forums and so for those who feel inclined tospeculate have every right to do so. No point in being overly self-righteous but there are always knockers around.

The reality is that in the absence of an officer reshuffle, we have absolutely no idea what would have happened, due to the power of the "butterfly effect" - small incremental changes that would all add up to completely change the outcome on a much larger scale - for better or for worse. This is why I find these "what if" scenarios a frustrating and fruitless exercise, to be honest.

I agree, especially about the 'Butterfly Effect'. I believe I started a similar "What-if" thread years ago but from a different angle, wonderng what would have happened if David Blair had remained as the Second Officer after Murdoch's Chief and Lightoller's First. The truth is, one never knows.

I recall a The New Twilight Zone (1985-89) episode about how a historian from the future travels back to November 22nd 1963 and - yes, you guessed right - manages to save President Kennedy from being assassinated. But within hours that act almost triggers a Thermonuclear war between the NATO and Warsaw Pact forces.

 

[Bob Read]

No point in being overly self-righteous but there are always knockers around.

So now ad hominems are fair game? Nice. It's one thing to say "what if" about events but on what basis would one possibly say that Lightoller's actions would have cost more lives than Murdoch's? There is no evidence. Just another attempt to drag a good man's name through the mud for sport.

 

[Sarah S]

I didn’t mean to insult any officer. That’s why I said „cautiously assume“ in my first post. I have lots of respect for Officer Lightoller but I just thought Murdoch pulled it off in the best way possible.
If my post caused displeasure by the respected historians I will withdraw my post

 

[Arun Vajpey]

If my post caused displeasure by the respected historians I will withdraw my post

So far, no respected historian has raised any objection as far as I can see.

 

[Mike Spooner]

The only possible could of happen and say with a BIG IF here. If Lightroller came on duty at 10.00. We know by 9.30 he gave an order to the crow nest to keep a sharp lookout for icebergs and growlers. It would appear he has already calculated that we will be in the ice region. Therefore on spec here, could he or not informed Smith of his 10.00 calculation?

 

[Sarah S]

I just searched around this Forum because I remembered „historians“ saying Lightoller would not have avoided the collision. In the back of my mind I attributed this opinion on certain threads about this here and now I found the Threads in question:

Lightoller at the helm

Lightoller had been known for going through ship wrecks during his sea career, what do you think his reaction would be towards the berg? Would you think he would try a head on? Murdoch and lightoller have different personalities.

www.encyclopedia-titanica.org

What if Lightoller had the Watch

Good Morning and Happy New Year to all. I have done some thinking and reviewing and to my knowledge the following question hasn't been asked. This is a theory as well as a what if. As we all know with addition of Mr. Wilde all of the officers third and above were bumped down with the...

www.encyclopedia-titanica.org

I don’t think anyone in those threads said explicitly that Lightoller would have made anything worse if he had been on watch. Most agree he would have acted the same as Murdoch. I really don’t know why in my mind I thought I had read something around those lines that were the opposite. I could have confused critisicm of Lightollers actions during the evacuation with some of the posts that said Lightoller as the OOW would either do same or worse as Murdoch. Maybe I confused something or found those comments on a different site. Anyways that was what I remembered with regards to if Lightoller had been 1st Officer.

 

[Arun Vajpey]

I could have confused critisicm of Lightollers actions during the evacuation with some of the posts that said Lightoller as the OOW would either do same or worse as Murdoch.

While Lightoller's decisions and actions with lifeboat loading were certainly questionable when compared with that of Murdoch on the starboard side, we cannot apply the same logic to the OOW duties at the time of the collision with the iceberg. While the Lifeboat loading and launchng happened more or less concurrently on both sides of the Titanic durng the sinking, the idea of Lightoller on the bridge instead of Murdoch is purely speculative because it did not happen. Furthermore, we consider the port side lifeboats as "Lightoller's boats" because he survived, while Captain Smith & Murdoch, to whom he was subordinate during the port side lifeboat loading, did not. In reality, Lightoller was involved with only Lifeboats #6, #4 and #12 by himself, along with Wilde with #8 and Collapsible D, very peripherally (if at all) with #14 and not at all with #2, #10 and #16. Collapsible B was not properly launched and so does not come into this equation. Murdoch on the other hand, was involved with all starboard lifeboats at least to soe extent as well as Lifeboat #10 on the port side.

The way I look at the hypothetical alternative OOW scenario is that Murdoch did any Marine officer's absolute best from the moment he heard the 3 bells, momentarily to save the ship and then to mitigate damage but the situation was already too late and beyond any human or mechanical ability to save the ship. Therefore, IMO neither Lightoller nor anyone else could have done any better. As to how Lightoller could have actually performed had he been the OOW at the time is open to speculation and there are bound to be variations in individual opinions.

 

[Michael H. Standart]

I don't know what sort of shiphandler Lightoller was although I expect that he was a very good one. So was Murdock. The Extra Master certificates they held didn't come out of a box of Cracker Jacks.

That said, I think a lot of these 'what ifs' and speculation about how a given officer would have reacted actually miss the core problem, which was the operational practice of the day. The Titanic was operated no differently from any other vessel on the North Atlantic run. Hold course and speed in all conditions so long as you can see in time to avoid.

They OVERestimated their ability to see in time to avoid, and it was only a matter of time before somebody got bit by that practice. In that context, it makes no difference who would have been on watch.

 

[Arun Vajpey]

They underestimated their ability to see in time to avoid, and it was only a matter of time before somebody got bit by that practice. In that context, it makes no difference who would have been on watch.

Did you mean "overestimated"?

 

[Michael H. Standart]

Did you mean "overestimated"?

Corrected! Thanks!