Accuracy of Simulations

Kyle Naber

Member
There seems to be an attitude of discouragement towards sinking simulations and environmental recreations within this community. Why shouldn't we trust the 20+ page forensic anilitical reports put together by naval architects or the sinking simulations done by respected names like Parks Stephenson, Bill Sauder, an Ken Marschall? For some, this just doesn't seem to be enough:


(Sample demonstration from Titanic: Honor and Glory)

Actually, for some people, this isn't even close. I feel like sometimes we expect too much or we are quick to judge something that isn't how we think things should be. Sometimes history is dissapointing. In fact, I really didn't feel like that simulation was accurate when I first watched it. Maybe it's because it wasn't how I 100% invisioned it. What are your thoughts on the video?

-Kyle
 
I think the bias for some people is that unlike taking evidence from a sinking model or a scientific simulation that would take into account of buoyancy and weight, Titanic: Honor & Glory (and other games) have to "animate" the sinking and program the virtual model to tilt and move. While you can't blame them as trying to make a model sink with trillions of water particles would instantly crash everyone's computer, it naturally has to lead to compromises in the deception of the sinking such as:

  • Water morphing though walls and floors and only flooding in one direction.
  • The wash and foaming of water not being as natural as it would be like tricking though doors, vents etc.
  • Furniture and gravity not being as smooth or subtile as it might have been during the sinking
  • Major events like funnels falling and the breakup being animated by the time-scale rather than the metal's strength or weakening in the actual sinking.
You even see a side effect of this in their 2016 sinking video where the ship unnaturally moves downwards rather than continually tilting.

(Watch between 9:00 and 9:10)

Despite this, you can't blame them for trying their best to minimise this such as their time spent adding churning and foaming water effects to doors, windows etc and at least they teamed up with Stephenson, Sauder, marschall to ensure it to be as historical accurate as possible.
 
I think it has to do with the survivors' contradictions as well and how the examiner's opinion might lean towards one account and dismiss another or vice versa. e.g. In the first video we hear an explosion and see a cloud of sparks coming out of the funnel but we don't know who's accounts were used. e.g. Harold Bride said - "Smoke and sparks were rushing out of her funnel. There must have been an explosion, but we heard none. We only saw the big stream of sparks."


Examiner A - He might trust the source entirely but direct his attention to the quote "There must have been an explosion, but we heard none." and he would create his own hypothesis as to why Harold Bride did not hear the explosion e.g. in shock or submerged underwater, and hypothesise what caused the explosion to occur. e.g. electrical cables snapping, boilers exploding or imploding, or the break up occurring.

Examiner B - He might trust the source entirely as well and direct his attention to the same quote but with emphasis on the latter part "There must have been an explosion, but we heard none." and he would add his own hypothesis as to why there was no explosion or explosive noise when Harold Bride saw the sparks e.g. compression of air and steam causing hot coals and dust to shoot out of the funnel.

Examiner C - He might dismiss this account entirely because it was published in the New York Times and he might not accept this as a credible source regardless of whatever it said.

Examiner D - He might trust the source 50 percent but would take for granted that the reporter had exaggerated a word here or there to make his article more sensational for the readers, and therefore he would not take the account in the literal sense, but would instead read between the lines and get a rough idea as to what the witness might have really said.

Examiner E - He might trust the account partially as well because the witness had admitted at the official Inquiry that he gave the interview to the New York Times in front of witnesses and that he was paid handsomely for it. Although the witness (Harold Bride) did not confirm or deny that every word in the report was accurate, and therefore it would be up to the examiner to make his own judgement as to how authentic the report actually was.

Examiner F - He might believe Bride's official testimony at the Inquiries was more truthful than his report to the New York Times and might dismiss the idea that sparks came out of the funnel.

Examiner G - He might believe the opposite and believe that Bride's report to the New York Times was more honest, open and truthful than his official testimony at the Inquiries and believe he was under pressure by his superiors at the Inquiries.

Examiner H - He might believe the accounts that were made as close to the sinking were more truthful than those accounts made in the weeks, months, or years after the sinking, and base his opinion on how much the witness could remember.

Examiner I - He might add up all the survivor accounts that mentioned the sparks and would compare it with those who did not see any sparks and he would base his belief just on what the majority saw.

Examiner J - He might do the same but instead he would evaluate when they gave their statements, if they were first hand or second hand, if the sources could be trusted, and if the witnesses were in a good position to see the sparks, both physically and mentally owing to the dramatic break up and sinking of the vessel and then work out that the majority may turn out to be the minority in regards to who's accounts were more believable.

Examiner K - He might use scientific analysis based on the best speculations that they could offer and believe the accounts that followed their analysis and dismiss the rest.

Examiner L - He might use his own experience to determine what really happened as they were emotionally and physically in a similar position and would give preference to the accounts from survivors who endured a similar experience that he could relate to.

There are so many possibilities and ways to evaluate one single piece of testimony that it is very hard to accurately determine what really happened. An open porthole, or a cracked pipe, or a door wedged open or a door jammed closed might have played a key role in how the ship's flooding progressed and how this may or may not have ultimately led to her listing to port or starboard, or tilting, or breaking in two. You can see how difficult it can be to confirm exactly what really happened. A simulation will always be limited to our own beliefs as to how the ship sank rather than how she really sank. Although with hard work and determination they could come up with something pretty close, but even then, there will always be that element of bias and speculation integrated into the simulation to fill in the blanks.


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Actually I don't know if this the right thread but will post anyway. There is a new demo out by Honor and Glory that shows the restaurants and everything. Very beautifully done, however there is a BIG mistake! The camera is panning around the B deck reception room, it shows the wall with B deck letters, then it looks up the aft staircase and you see the square clock on the landing. We now go up the stairs, and we're on the boat deck landing and entrance.I studied this more closely and kept thinking something is just not right here.... well it turns out they omitted A deck altogether and accidentally used the A deck landing as part of the B deck reception room area! Check it out. I don't know if there is way to contact these people and let them know about this.Its called Honor and Glory demo 2.
 
Would it perhaps be in this video?



A lot of their demo and sample work is of course a work in progress and they have a big team of historians around the project to really polish it up and make everything as accurate as possible. They'll most likey notice the mistake if it is one. Some of their content has been questionable like their collision theory and interior design or their take on contraversal topics like the colors of the rockets etc, etc.
 
Kyle,

The game certainly looks very good, graphically speaking. I´m actually a big fan of video games and might play this if it gets a console release. However, their real time sinking video has some pretty distracting inaccuracies, the most glaring that I noticed being that they put the forecastle underwater about 30 minutes sooner than they should, having the starboard list stop too early, and having the port list become noticeably steep a little earlier than I would put it, too.
 
I agree. They actually made that video in quite a hurry (6 Days!) in order to have it completed for the 104th to accommodate their podcast. They are aware of their many errors in that video and have already made documents for future plans. I hope to have an undated version for the 106th. Things like the final plunge and electricity comments and sound effects have already been changed in the final level of the game.
 
Kyle,

For 6 days, it´s very impressive! However, some of the inaccuracies are most likely not due to the time constraint (such as having a 1 hour 33 minute time difference from New York). The only difference I noticed in the re-release of the sinking video was that the final plunge was slowed down, but the ship is still shown not going vertical at the end as practically every survivor testified.
 
Out of 700+ survivors only a fraction spoke of the disaster. The angle of the stern depended on where each survivor was positioned. A number of them said the stern did not rise any higher than 45 or 60 degrees. As a number of lifeboats were rowing away from the bow or away from the stern their view would be greatly different as they would simply see the stern sticking up. I believe that is how the confusion came about. It all depended on each person's perspective. The survivors who saw her side would be able to determine the true angle. e.g.



anglelist.PNG


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