The speed made by Californian gave her officers just about the time needed to spot the ice and crash stop maneuver. So at twice that speed, you would need a miracle to avoid that ice in the same conditions!
The common practice of the time was said to keep course and speed until ice was sighted. «Was sighted» … in normal weather conditions? What means normal weather conditions on the south ridge of the Newfoundland Grand Banks? Titanic was sailing across the westerlies convergence zone between the polar high and the temperate low. In April, the wind direction varies on a westerly semi circle, converging from north Beaufort Scale 5 to south Beaufort Scale 3. Beaufort Scale 5 is known to generate moderate waves taking a more pronounced long form, many white horses and chance of some spray whereas Beaufort Scale 3, make large wavelets, crests begin to break, foam of glassy appearance and perhaps scattered white horses. Therefore, April calms in that area are exceptionally rare even more inexistent, to the point that it could not be considered as «normal».
Then,
«If it becomes at all doubtful let me know at once; I will be just inside» vs.
«it was rather a pity the breeze had not kept up whilst we were going through the ice region. Of course, my reason was obvious; he knew I meant the water ripples breaking on the base of the berg»
The Captain required to be called at ounce if it became at all doubtful, right in front of a senior officer inquiring that it was a pity that the breeze had not kept up whilst they were going through the ice region, to a Captain who knew what meant the absence of ripples breaking on the base of the berg. Furthermore, they both questioned themselves if there would be enough reflected light, from a new moon, to white outline the blue (dark) side of an iceberg so to give sufficient warning. But as stated in 13617;
«we should be able to see it». We Should ...
Can we still promote the common practice of the time to keep course and speed until ice was sighted when;
- the sea was dead calm in a region known to be windy,
- it was a dark moonless night,
- there was knowledge of an approaching ice region,
- there was a justified concern about iceberg’s range of visibility under those conditions,
… and all above, at a pace of 21½kts which was considerable for the time compared to the average shipping speed, while knowing that the reaction time would be greatly reduced but the complex machinery not any faster to maneuver. If my calculations are good, reducing speed from 22½kts to 15½kts (Half Ahead / 50RPM / Turbine Engaged) between 20h00 and 05h00, would require an average speed of less than 22¾kts to arrive New York before expected time!
The Escalation of Commitment is a human behavior pattern in which an individual facing increasingly negative outcome from the environment nevertheless continues the same behavior rather than alter course. Besides, it could be difficult to keep the critical distance needed to assure safety if a person has a propensity for over-commitment to the company and 1st class passengers, just like today’s …
It is, however, to be hoped that the last has been heard of the practice and that for the future it will be abandoned for what we now know to be more prudent and wiser measures. What was a mistake in the case of the "Titanic" would without doubt be negligence in any similar case in the future.
Dated this 30th day of July, 1912.
MERSEY.
Wreck Commissioner.
Save by the clock...
