Armchair opinion:
I am willing to give Joughin's story a large benefit of doubt, and a dose of salt.
1. Joughin, by his own admission, was probably inebriated. Not something to be proud of, nor a flattering picture to present to the press, an inquiry, or one's employers.
2. I'd imagine that the events he recalled before abandoning ship were fairly ingrained to his mind by adrenalin, although subject to some alcoholic confusion. As a professional seagoing man, his duties, inclinations, contributions and situational awareness were perhaps more instinctive and familiar than a passengers' (ie stocking the boats with bread, tossing deck chairs, helping load the boats, etc...).
3. His exact whereabouts and movements (such as climbing the rails, "riding" the stern down like an elevator, the manner in which he finally entered the water, etc...), were in the context of almost complete darkness after the break-up/loss of electric power, and probably further confused by the crowd of humanity swarming about him. (imagine trying to determine your location or the direction you are facing in a darkened room full of panicked people).
4. That said, once in the water... a few minutes immersed in that cold could seem like hours. 15 or 20 minutes could seem an eternity... particularly when drunk.
5. He DID suffer frostbite in his extremities, so he DID come in contact with the water at some point. Were he actually in a lifeboat from the get-go, I seriously doubt he would have allowed his feet to remain immersed in bilge-water for the next several hours until rescue. Were any other survivors in boats 10 or 12 so afflicted? Did any other survivors mention that much water in their boats, such as the observant Mrs. Shelly?
6. How did Mrs. Shelly identify a "baker"? Why not a steward? Cook? I believe Joughin had a life jacket. That alone would make such a determination difficult, without asking him outright (which also suggests further conversations with others in the boat). Her clearest chance of identifying him as a "baker" would be in the lights of TITANIC, yet none of the other crew in the boat identifies him as such... despite repeated inquiry as to who was in their boat.
7. While a stoker or some young seaman might remain anonymous, I believe Joughin was perhaps known to at least one of the surviving officers, particularly Lightoller. Why tempt repercussions with an obvious lie in the face of possible contradiction from such an authority figure, particularly a fastidious observer/professional seaman as Lightoller? Lowe, Boxhall and Pittman could also have easily recalled some detail that would have cast shade on Joughin's tale... and had decades to do so, but not a peep.
Certainly one would have contacted
Walter Lord after his book and the movie came out... and Lord had plenty of time to correct the record. Joughin's story is prominent in "A Night To Remember", which was a very popular movie and critical success. Many survivors attended the premier, and maintained contact with Lord long after. He was not shy about reporting new evidence and corrections, as he proved in "
The Night Lives On".
So it goes with ALL "conspiracy theories"... someone eventually "talks".
Therefore, I believe much of Joughin's story.
The fantastical bits of his tale are generally his solo actions during the horrific plunge, the manner in which he entered the water, his actions in the water, etc... occurred in total darkness... and subject to interpretation by an inebriated, frozen, and perhaps panic-stricken mind. Other snippets... like his repeated trips for a drink, his ride on the rails, his dunking in the water without hardly getting his hair wet... are entirely unverifyable by anyone that survived. In other words, entirely free of criticism or chance of rebuke. Therein lies the chance for a bit of innocuous, harmless embellishment for a more entertaining story.
The believable bits... his actions at the boats prior to the break-up, his eventual rescue from the water onto the upturned collapsible (no matter how long he spent in either), etc... happened with plenty of potential witnesses in the bright glow of TITANIC's decks and the brightening dawn of day.