This should probably be written under a different heading, Sam but since it very closely ties-in with speed and subsequently, time, I'll forge a head. Forgive arithmetic errors if found.
Look at the problem logically in light of all the available evidence. Forget about Boxhall's erroneous CQD for the moment and concentrate on all available evidence between Noon April 13 and 7-30 pm sights on April 14.
Before considering the conception of speed in the eyes of
Titanic's officers let's set the scene.
Between Noon April 13 and Noon April 14, an engine speed of 75 rpm produced an average speed of 22.1 knots for the Day's Run, even though the conditions were less that test-tank perfect. Why do you think that was? Here's what I think.
US synoptic weather maps of the North Atlantic covering
Titanic's voyage show that she encountered north west to northerly winds most of the time. These were cause by two cold fronts circulating anti-clockwise round a low pressure to the north of
Titanic's great circle track.
Titanic was in influenced by them, one after the other, and by additional north westerly wind circulating clock-wise (how appropriate) round the center of an intensifying High Pressure area directly in her path. The period of greatest influence of these winds was between Noon April 13 and the early evening of April 14. You can check on the appropriate Weather Maps for the time.
These winds, acting on her superstructure abaft her starboard beam, would have given her and every other vessel in the area, a push, adding to speed but causing ships to be blown off course...to the south ward of any planned track.
In the past, you have counteracted the foregoing by claiming that
Titanic was stemming a 1 knot current most of the way. You have backed this up with data from an old Pilot Chart showing a 1 knot current acting against
Titanic all the way back across the Atlantic.
Under normal circumstances, there would certainly be a weak current acting in that direction; still is. However the current you refer to is called The North Atlantic
Drift current. In the time of
Titanic, it was called
The West Wind Drift. It transports a shallow layer of warm Gulf Stream waters north eastward but unlike the Gulf Stream, as it's name tells you, it is a very shallow current generated by the prevailing South Westerlies and owes it's strength to the strength of the prevailing South Westerly wind blowing over a long fetch for very many hours. In fact, to avoid it, there used to be a southern track for low powered vessels and sailing ships way south of
Titanic's planned track. Due to the counter-winds in the area, that surface current wasn't running during April 13 and 14; the conditions prevailing in the North Atlantic from April 11 until after April 15 would have wiped it out.
Now the consideration of distance versus speed
At Noon on April, 14, you have determined that
Titanic had 126 miles to run from Noon until she would be at
The Corner, her turning point. I make it 2 miles less than that but that's neither here nor there. We'll split the difference and call it 125 miles.
Captain Smith wrote in his night order book that the ship had to be turned at 5-50 pm. With 125 miles to run until then, this meant Smith used a speed of 21.5 knots to determine when to turn the ship.
3/O Pitman stubbornly kept to his belief that the speed was 'about' 21.5 knots. This means that if he thought the ship was to be turned at 5 pm then he used a distance of 107.5 miles from Noon to
The Corner. That's nonsense! However, if Pitman really did think the distance to The Corner was 107.5 miles and the ship ran-on for a further 16 miles then, according to him, she turned when she had covered a distance of 107.5 + 16 = 124.5. That's close enough to where
Captain Smith thought she would be.
4/O Boxhall also said there was such a big difference between when he thought
Titanic should have turned and the time of 5-50 pm when she
did turn. He doesn't quantify the time difference but when a speed from Noon of 22 knots was mentioned to him, he did not contradict or correct his questioner. Therefore, if we assume that Boxhall was thinking in terms of 22 knots and the captain was thinking in terms 124.5 as a distance, then we can deduce that Boxhall thought the ship should have been turned 10 minutes earlier, at 5-40 pm and consequently overshot the mark by 3.7 miles. This means that in his opinion,
Titanic turned when she had covered a distance of 128 miles from Noon and she did so at about 41-58.25'N., 47-04'West. His thinking was fatally flawed and unworthy of a navigator of his experience. It was clearly based on
Titanic making exactly her planned course from Noon and passing directly through the position of
The Corner. As any competent navigator will tell you, the chances of that happening are zero and zilch. All that is needed is a bit of wind from any direction other than astern or a head and for the helmsman to wander off a bit here and there and you can be as much as a mile out or even more, either side. Given a steady wind abaft the beam or on the quarter plus an unknown current and it can be a lot more than that. Titanic experienced such a wind.
Now consider the foregoing with the evidence of
Titanic's 5th officer, Lowe; evidence which you reject out of hand.
Lowe claimed that instead of making 22 knots or 21.5 knots from Noon,
Titanic barely made 21 knots. Oh I know all your protestations about what he said at the US inquiry Sam, but the fact remains that the man quoted a speed of 20.95 knots. In fact, he was very specific about it. Of all
Titanic's officers, Lowe was the only one who did not quote estimated speed due to engine revolutions.
Now, armed with the foregoing, and a couple of other facts lets go back to your last post and examine Boxhall's navigation.
First, if we accept the speed from 8 pm onward as being 22.5 knots, use the longitude of 49-56 West as where
Titanic hit the iceberg and use run times of 8 pm to impact of 3 hours 40 minutes(no clock change) and 8 pm to impact 4 hours 04 minutes(change 24 minutes) we can determine alternative longitudes for the ship's position at 8 pm on the evening of April 14.
By calculation,
Titanic was either at 48-01'West or 47-53 'West at 8 pm that night. The distances between these to longitudes and Boxhall's 50-14'West are 99 miles and 105 miles respectively. Now consider the following:
If
Titanic had actually reached 50-14'West, her patent log would have read about 272 miles. Since we have two position for 8 pm that night, this means that at 8 pm the patent log was reading about 173 miles or 167 miles.
If, as Boxhall's evidence suggests, the patent logt read 128 at 5-50 pm when she turned, then
Titanic covered a distance of 45 or 39 miles from when she did so. With a run time of 2 hours 10 minutes (5-50 pm to 8 pm) these distances equate to average speeds of 20.8 knots or 18 knots. Clearly nonsense.
However, if 5th Officer Lowe's evidence was correct, then
Titanic turned when the patent log read 122.2 miles. This means that she covered a distances of 51.8 or 44.8 miles in 2 hours 10 minutes.
These distances give us a choice between speeds of 23.9 knots or 20.8 knots. Which one would you chose?
Here's a little exercise for you to check-out.
If you accept the evidence of Quartermaster Rowe that
Titanic hit the iceberg when the patent log read 260 miles and the evidence of 5th Officer Lowe that suggests that
Titanic turned when the patent log read 122. 2 miles, then Titanic travelled a distance of 260 minus 122.2 miles = 137. 8 miles between turning and impact.
If you accept an impact position of 41-45 North, 49-56 west, run back from that position for 137.8 miles on a course of 086 True. I have done that and find that according to 5th Officer Lowe,
Titanic turned at a point which was 8.7 miles x 129 True from the intended turning point...
The Corner.
I don't think that any of these men 'lied' at all. They simply were asked to recall in exact detail, the situation at a previous time. Detail that they did not expect to have to remember with any great accuracy at a future date.